Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

Part 2

 

8th Congressional  Race – Democratic Primary

41st Legislative  Race – Democratic Primary

 

August 2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

 

 

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from August 10th through August 18th, 2002.  A total of 337 registered Democratic voters in Maryland’s 8th Congressional District and 321 registered Democratic voters in Maryland’s 41st Legislative District who indicated they were likely to vote in this year’s September 10th Democratic primary election were interviewed by telephone.  Cross-sections of calls were made into each jurisdiction to reflect Democratic primary election voting patterns.

 

The margin of error for each sample, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universes were sampled. 

 

8th Congressional Democratic Primary Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

 

Male         155   (46%)

 

White                         265    (79%)

Female      182   (54%)

African-American       64    (19%)

 

Other/Ref                    8   

 

 

41st Legislative Democratic Primary Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

 

Male         142   (44%)

 

White                           95    (30%)

Female      179   (56%)

African-American     221    (69%)

 

Other/Ref                      5   

 

Analysis

 

 

 

 

8th Congressional District Democratic Primary

 

It's a toss-up!  Delegate Mark Shriver leads Senator Chris Van Hollen by one slim point in the four-way race to challenge Congresswoman Connie Morella this fall.  Shriver captures 31% of the Democratic primary vote to Van Hollen's 30%, with former Clinton administration official Ira Shapiro coming in third with 14%, and perennial candidate Deborah Vollmer bringing up the rear with 4%.  Twenty-one percent of the primary electorate remains undecided, a pretty sizeable number with just three weeks to go before Election Day.

 

Shriver is recognized by all but 5% of the Democratic primary electorate, and favorably by 57%.  His negatives (14%) are twice as high as Van Hollen's (8%), though, who gets a 51% favorable rating while still unknown to 18% of the voters.  Shapiro's overall name ID is a respectable 79%.  His positives (28%) are half that of Shriver's, and 44% of voters have a neutral opinion of Shapiro.  Vollmer's name is recognized by 54% of Democratic primary voters in District 8, but positively by only 9%.

 

Shriver owes a great deal of his margin to African-American voters.  He's getting 41% of the black vote, while Van Hollen earns 14%.  Significantly, 38% of African-Americans are still undecided.  Van Hollen, on the other hand, is winning with white voters (34% to Shriver's 29%).  Shapiro gets 16% of the white vote, and Vollmer 5%.  Sixteen percent of white voters are undecided.

 

Shriver leads Van Hollen with men (33% to 24%), while Van Hollen leads among women (35% to 29%).  Shapiro gets 17% of men, and 11% of women.  Vollmer, the only female in the primary contest, gets 6% of women, but just 1% of men.  More men (25%) than women (19%) have yet to make up their minds.

 

With 21% undecided and oodles of money yet to be spent, this race could go either way.  Van Hollen still has the opportunity to introduce himself to 18% of the voters, but Shriver's familial advantage with black voters is an important component in the electoral equation as well.  Whatever the outcome of the primary, the winner better catch his breath:  He'll be facing Connie Morella, who is viewed favorably by 54% of the Democratic primary voters in the 8th Congressional District.

 

 

Inter-County Connector

 

To paraphrase Democratic Ragin’-Cajun consultant James Carville, “It’s the ICC, stupid!”  It looks like Montgomery County's most controversial issue isn't controversial at all.   Sixty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters in the 8th Congressional District favor construction of the Inter-County Connector, while just 18% oppose it.  The remaining 15% gave no answer.

 

Among voters undecided in the 8th Congressional District primary, a whopping 78% favor the ICC, with 11% opposed, and another 11% offering no answer.

 

 

41st Legislative District Democratic Primary

 

No community has been more roiled by the legislative map drawn by the Maryland Court of Appeals than the 41st District in Baltimore City.  In a circumstance unthinkable to the political class, the judges drew lines that contained Baltimore City within its corporate boundaries and included the home of Senate Budget and Taxation Committee Chairman Barbara Hoffman, who is white, in a district that is 70% black.  Hoffman was urged to run in an adjacent district with no incumbent senator, but defiantly refused.  She is being challenged by Delegate Lisa Gladden, a real comer in the General Assembly, and Frank Boston, a former delegate, both of whom are African-American.

 

In the Democratic primary contest, Hoffman holds a narrow lead over Gladden, 39% to 36%, with Boston getting just 5%, and 20% undecided. 

 

Hoffman, whose name is recognized by 89% of the district's primary voters, 54% favorably, is winning 80% of the white vote, and 22% of the black vote.  Gladden, on the other hand, is capturing 48% of the black vote, but just 8% of the white vote.

 

Hoffman didn't help herself in the African-American community when she demanded that Gladden return a $1,000 contribution made from her six-figure campaign account when she and Gladden were still running in separate districts.  Forty-eight percent of primary voters (and 45% of undecided voters) say it was not appropriate for Hoffman to ask for the contribution back.  With 24% of the black vote still undecided (compared to 10% of the white vote), Hoffman has an uphill battle in her new neighborhood.

 

 

 

 

**********   337 Likely 8th Congressional Democratic Primary Voters   **********

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

Favorable

 

Unfavorable

 

Neutral

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

Mark Shriver

57%

14%

24%

5%

Chris Van Hollen

51%

8%

23%

18%

Ira Shapiro

28%

7%

44%

21%

Deborah Vollmer

9%

5%

40%

46%

 

Connie Morella

 

54%

 

29%

 

15%

 

2%

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the Democratic primary election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote:  Ira Shapiro, Mark Shriver, Chris Van Hollen, or Deborah Vollmer?

 

 

 

Shriver

Van

Hollen

 

Shapiro

 

Vollmer

 

Undecided

 

Districtwide

 

31%

 

30%

 

14%

 

4%

 

21%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

33%

 

24%

 

17%

 

1%

 

25%

 

Women

 

29%

 

35%

 

11%

 

6%

 

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

29%

 

34%

 

16%

 

5%

 

16%

African-American

 

41%

 

14%

 

5%

 

2%

 

38%

 

 

**********   337 Likely 8th Congressional Democratic Primary Voters   **********

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you favor or oppose construction of the Inter-County Connector?

 

 

 

 

Favor

 

Oppose

 

No answer

 

Districtwide

 

67%

 

18%

 

15%

 

 

 

 

 

Undecided Primary Voters

 

 

78%

 

 

11%

 

 

11%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**********   321 Likely 41st Legislative District Democratic Primary Voters   **********

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

Favorable

 

Unfavorable

 

Neutral

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Barbara Hoffman

 

54%

 

13%

 

21%

 

12%

 

Lisa Gladden

 

34%

 

11%

 

27%

 

28%

 

Frank Boston

 

19%

 

15%

 

29%

 

37%

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the Democratic primary election for State Senate were held today, for whom would you vote:  Frank Boston, Lisa Gladden, or Barbara Hoffman?

 

 

 

Hoffman

 

Gladden

 

Boston

 

Undecided

 

Districtwide

 

39%

 

36%

 

5%

 

20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

35%

 

36%

 

7%

 

22%

 

Women

 

42%

 

36%

 

3%

 

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

80%

 

8%

 

2%

 

10%

African-American

 

22%

 

48%

 

6%

 

24%

 

 

**********   321 Likely 41st Legislative District Democratic Primary Voters   **********

 

 

QUESTION:  As you may know, State Senator Barbara Hoffman contributed $1,000 to Lisa Gladden’s state senate campaign when they were running in separate districts.  In June, the Maryland Court of Appeals ordered new legislative redistricting lines, putting Hoffman and Gladden in the same district.  Do you think it’s appropriate for Barbara Hoffman to now ask for the contribution back, or not?

 

 

 

 

Appropriate

Not

Appropriate

 

No answer

 

Districtwide

 

21%

 

48%

 

31%

 

 

 

 

 

Undecided Primary Voters

 

 

12%

 

 

45%

 

 

43%