Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

Maryland Poll

Governor’s Election

Congressional Districts 2 & 8

October 2002

Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from October 14^th through October 20^th, 2002. A total of 840 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in this year’s general election were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

The survey also includes an over-sampling of 331 voters in Maryland’s 2^nd Congressional District and 333 voters in Maryland’s 8^th Congressional District. The margin for error in both the 2^nd and 8^th District surveys is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 405 (48%)	White 628 (75%)	Eastern Shore 78 (9%)
Female 435 (52%)	Black 199 (24%)	Baltimore City 85 (10%)
	Other/Ref 13	Baltimore Suburbs 284 (34%)
Party Registration		Washington Suburbs 299 (36%)
Democrat 476 (57%)		Western Maryland 94 (11%)
Republican 269 (32%)
Independent 95 (11%)

Regional Groupings

Eastern Shore - includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.

Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

2^nd District Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race
Male 162 (49%)	White 241 (73%)
Female 169 (51%)	Black 86 (26%)
	Other 4
Party Registration
Democrat 215 (65%)
Republican 89 (27%)
Independent 27 (8%)

8^th District Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race
Male 156 (47%)	White 264 (79%)
Female 177 (53%)	Black 56 (17%)
	Other 13
Party Registration
Democrat 189 (57%)
Republican 87 (26%)
Independent 57 (17%)

Analysis

Gubernatorial Election

Wow, is this ever close! Republican Bob Ehrlich holds on to a razor-thin lead over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, 46% to 45%, with 7% undecided. Libertarian Spear Lancaster polls at 1% of the statewide vote. Each major candidate slipped one point after a month of intense campaigning.

Ehrlich stretched his lead on the Eastern Shore from 53% to 38% in September to 57% to 32% in this survey, and widened the gap in Western Maryland from 57% to 36% last month to 61% to 30% two weeks before Election Day. Ehrlich enjoys a 2-to-1 advantage over Townsend in the Baltimore suburbs (60% to 31%), but slid a little off the 62% share of the vote he held in the September poll. Townsend solidified her grip on Baltimore City (74% to 20%), where she gained five points and Ehrlich dropped six. Voters in the Washington region were more stable, with Ehrlich losing, and Townsend gaining, just one point each (Townsend 59%, Ehrlich 33%).

Townsend gained a point among men (39% to 38%), but lost three points with women (55% to 52%). Conversely, Ehrlich gained a point with women (38% to 39%), but lost three points with men (55% to 52%). Ehrlich's share of the white vote is unchanged at 57%; Townsend's is down to 33% from 35% in September. And Townsend looks to have gotten the black vote back – Ehrlich's share is down to 11% (from 14%), and hers is up to 83% (from 81%).

Democrats and Republicans are holding pretty steady, with the candidates trading a point a piece between the Ds and Rs. Ehrlich holds a super-majority of Republicans (86%, down from 87%) and a quarter of the Democrats (25%, up from 24%). Townsend has 68% of the Democratic vote (down from 69%), and 8% of Republicans (up from 7%). But the independents remain volatile, with 39% going for Ehrlich, 34% for Townsend, 3% for Lancaster, and 24% undecided.

A month of negative advertising has taken its toll on the name ID number of both major candidates (and also, probably, citizen goodwill toward politics in general). Ehrlich's positives slipped from 44% to 43%, but his negatives jumped from 21% to 33% since the September survey. Townsend, however, is in worse shape, with positives at 42% and negatives at 39% (up from 35%). Libertarian Spear Lancaster is unknown to 77% of the electorate.

In a race this close, the final outcome can hinge on literally anything: A small misstep, a particularly good ad, an unexpected endorsement, rain on Election Day. The relatively

small group of undecided voters seem to tilt slightly toward Ehrlich two weeks before the

election: His favorables among this group are a little higher and the issue stances among undecided voters reflect his positions a bit more.

On paper Townsend has had almost everything in her favor, with a near 2-to-1 party advantage, universal recognition throughout the campaign, and enough funds to start a country. But it now seems possible for Ehrlich to win this election, while falling short of his initial goals of capturing 20% of the black vote and garnering over 40% in the DC suburbs. Townsend and her campaign have been very effective since the primary stymieing Ehrlich with these two important voter blocks. But will she end up winning the battle and losing the war?

Most Important Issue

Maryland's ballooning budget deficit (24%) remains the Number One issue facing our next governor, named by nearly a quarter of survey respondents, and up from 23% in September. Among voters undecided in the governor's race, the budget deficit looms even larger, named by 32%.

Education is second once again at 19% (down from 21%), and crime and illegal drugs take third position at 10% (up from 8%). In single digits are the economy and traffic/transportation tied at 9%, health care and prescription drugs at 8%, and taxes at 6%. Lesser concerns were gun control (5%), the environment (3%), the DC sniper shootings (2%), and growth/development (1%). The remaining 4% gave no answer.

Gun Control

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend recently called for expanding Maryland's ballistic fingerprinting law to include rifles, while Bob Ehrlich has remarked that a few of Maryland existing gun laws should be reexamined to judge their effectiveness. Maryland voters have their own opinions: Fifty-three percent agreed that "[w]e already have enough gun control laws – we need to better enforce the laws already on the books." Thirty-six percent statewide felt that "[w]e need more and stronger gun control laws." Eight percent took the opposite view, that "[w]e have too many gun control laws now." The remaining 3% gave no answer.

Better enforcement of existing laws is the favored position in every demographic subgroup in the survey, except among Democrats and residents of the Washington suburbs. Fifty percent of Democrats, and 54% of voters in the DC suburbs, say we need

more and stronger gun control laws. Among undecided voters, just 31% opt for more and stronger laws, with 61% saying that we need better enforcement of existing gun control statutes.

2^nd Congressional District

Baltimore County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger has opened up a four point lead, 47% to 43%, over former Congresswoman Helen Delich Bentley in the race to succeed Bob Ehrlich in Maryland 2^nd Congressional District. Ruppersberger led by two points, 45% to 43%, in our July survey. Ten percent are undecided.

The biggest change over the last three months is in Bentley's favorable name ID. It's been knocked back 14 points, from 63% to 49%, while her negatives shot from 18% to 31%. Ruppersberger's favorables are up five points to 47%, as are his negatives, from 26% in July to 32% in October.

Bentley is holding her own with the District's Democrats, but has lost ground among independents to Ruppersberger. His share of the independent vote is up ten points, from 27% to 37%, while hers in down six points, from 47% to 41%. Even more significant is Ruppersberger's standing with Republicans. He has nearly doubled his take, from 10% to 19% since July, while Bentley slipped from 76% to 74%. In a district that is 65% Democratic, Bentley can ill afford to lose a fifth of her base, even if she takes 31% of the Democrats from Ruppersberger.

8^th Congressional District

In July, before the primary, Congresswoman Connie Morella was handily beating all comers in her quest to retain her seat in the 8^th Congressional District. In October, the contest is no longer hypothetical, and Morella is locked in a tight race with State Senator Chris Van Hollen, leading him 44% to 42%, with 14% undecided.

Morella once stratospheric positives are a little closer to earth now, down to 56% from 64% in July – still enviable – but the campaign has clearly taken a toll on her image, as her negatives have more than doubled, from 8% to 20%. Van Hollen's numbers are nearly identical – 57% positive, 21% negative.

Morella is holding 80% of the Republicans, capturing 27% of Democrats, and 46% of the independents. Her numbers with women stand at 39%. Van Hollen gets the support of 48% of women. Morella, however, holds a wider lead among men, 49% to 36%. Van

Hollen gets 48% of the black vote to Morella's 20%, with nearly a third of African-American voters (32%) undecided as the campaign enters its final weeks.

In July, 30% of the District's Democratic voters said that their party's control of the House of Representatives would not affect their vote for Congress. In order to emerge the winner on November 5^th, Morella must convince those voters that their initial instincts were right, and Van Hollen must persuade them that they were wrong.

QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Governor and Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic ticket of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson; the Republican ticket of Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele; or the Libertarian ticket of Spear Lancaster and Lorenzo Gaztanaga?

	Ehrlich/ Steele	Townsend/ Larson	Lancaster/ Gaztanaga	Undecided
Statewide	46%	45%	1%	8%
Eastern Shore	57%	32%	1%	10%
Baltimore City	20%	74%	-	6%
Baltimore Suburbs	60%	31%	1%	8%
Washington Suburbs	33%	59%	1%	7%
Western Maryland	61%	30%	1%	8%
Men	53%	38%	1%	8%
Women	39%	52%	1%	8%
White	57%	33%	1%	9%
African-American	11%	83%	-	6%
Democrat	25%	68%	1%	6%
Republican	86%	8%	-	6%
Independent	39%	34%	3%	24%

Name Recognition

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Bob Ehrlich	43%	33%	21%	3%
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend	42%	39%	18%	1%
Spear Lancaster	5%	2%	16%	77%

QUESTION: Thinking specifically about the State of Maryland, what is the most important issue facing our next Governor?

Budget deficit 24%

Education 19%

Crime/illegal drugs 10%

Economy 9%

Traffic/transportation 9%

Health care/prescription drugs 8%

Taxes 6%

Gun control 5%

Environment 3%

Sniper/DC suburbs shootings 2%

Growth/development 1%

No answer 4%

QUESTION: Which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion on the issue of gun control:

• We need more and stronger gun control laws,

§ We already have enough gun control laws – we need to better enforce the laws already on the books,

• We have too many gun control laws now?

	Need More, Stronger Laws	Better Enforce Existing Laws	Too Many Laws Now	No Answer
Statewide	36%	53%	8%	3%
Men	32%	54%	11%	3%
Women	40%	52%	5%	3%
White	34%	54%	10%	2%
African-American	43%	49%	2%	6%
Democrat	50%	42%	4%	4%
Republican	14%	67%	17%	2%
Independent	27%	69%	2%	2%
Baltimore Suburbs	25%	62%	9%	4%
DC Suburbs	54%	38%	5%	3%

Profile Of Undecided Voters

Name Recognition Undecided voters	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral
Bob Ehrlich	31%	19%	46%
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend	27%	23%	49%

Most Important Issue among Undecided voters (Top 3 responses)

Budget deficit 32%

Education 14%

Economy 13%

Gun Control Position among Undecided voters

	Need More, Stronger Laws	Better Enforce Existing Laws	Too Many Laws Now
Undecided voters	31%	60%	5%

Gonzales RM&S Maryland Polls

Gubernatorial Tracking

Townsend Name ID

August 2000 to Present

Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Rec
Aug 2000	54%	15%	22%	9%
May 2001	52%	20%	19%	9%
Sept 2001	53%	20%	22%	5%
Jan 2002	46%	26%	23%	5%
July 2002	41%	29%	27%	3%
Aug 2002	40%	31%	27%	2%
Sept 2002	39%	35%	25%	1%
Oct 2002	42%	39%	18%	1%

Ehrlich Name ID

March 1999 to Present

Date	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Rec
Mar 1999	27%	10%	22%	41%
Aug 2000	21%	7%	26%	46%
Sept 2001	28%	8%	29%	35%
Jan 2002	32%	9%	28%	31%
July 2002	34%	10%	31%	25%
Aug 2002	38%	14%	35%	13%
Sept 2002	44%	21%	26%	9%
Oct 2002	43%	33%	21%	3%

Townsend-Ehrlich Match-up

August 2000 to Present

Date	Townsend	Ehrlich	Undecided
Aug 2000	52%	29%	19%
Sept 2001	54%	31%	15%
Jan 2002	50%	35%	15%
July 2002	48%	41%	11%
Aug 2002	47%	43%	10%
Sept 2002	46%	47%	7%
Oct 2002	45%	46%	8%

2^nd Congressional District

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Helen Bentley	49%	31%	17%	3%
Dutch Ruppersberger	47%	32%	19%	2%

QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote: Dutch Ruppersberger, the Democrat, or Helen Bentley, the Republican?

	Ruppersberger	Bentley	Undecided
Districtwide	47%	43%	10%
Men	45%	48%	7%
Women	49%	38%	13%
White	39%	53%	8%
African-American	71%	14%	15%
Democrat	60%	31%	9%
Republican	19%	74%	7%
Independent	37%	41%	22%

8^th Congressional District

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Chris Van Hollen	57%	21%	16%	6%
Connie Morella	56%	20%	22%	2%

QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote: Chris Van Hollen, the Democrat, or Connie Morella, the Republican?

	Morella	Van Hollen	Undecided
Districtwide	44%	42%	14%
Men	49%	36%	15%
Women	39%	48%	13%
White	48%	41%	11%
African-American	20%	48%	32%
Democrat	27%	58%	15%
Republican	80%	10%	10%
Independent	46%	37%	17%