Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

Part 2

 

Presidential Contest

 

 

 

June 2004

 

 

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from June 4th through June 9th, 2004.  A total of 836 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         414   (50%)

 

White        641   (77%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md   105    (13%)

Female      422   (50%)

Black        176   (21%)

Baltimore City             84    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   19 

Baltimore Suburbs     286    (34%)

 

 

Washington Suburbs  266    (32%)

 

 

Western Maryland       95    (11%)

Party Registration

 

 

 

Democrat         469   (56%)

 

 

 

Republican       264   (32%)

 

 

Independent     103   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

 

George W. Bush Job Approval

 

President George Bush’s job performance rating in Maryland is at its lowest point since he took office 3 ½ years ago.

 

Statewide, 39% approve of the job Bush is doing as president, a majority of 54% disapproves, and 7% gave no opinion. 

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

Eighty-two percent of Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing, while 78% of registered Democrats disapprove.  Among independents, 36% approve and 52% disapprove.

 

 

 

Presidential Match-up

 

In an election match-up, presumptive Democratic nominee John Kerry is currently capturing 52% of the vote, while Bush garners 38%, with 2% saying they’ll vote for Ralph Nader, and 8% are undecided.

 

Unsurprisingly, Kerry and Bush have the overwhelming support of their respective parties.  Kerry is now leading Bush among independents 53%-36%.

 

 

 

 

 

Iraq

 

Statewide, 36% approve of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, while 58% disapprove.

 

Disapproval toward the President over the war is up significantly from December, when we last tested opinion on the issue.

 

 

War in Iraq

Approve

Disapprove

 

 

 

June 2004

36%

58%

December 2003

40%

48%

 

 

Forty-eight percent of Marylanders think the United States should withdraw military troops from Iraq sooner than the 2 year time-table recently announced, 14% say we should stay longer, and 27% feel that getting our troops out in 2006 sounds about right.

 

But only 33% favor an immediate withdrawal of American troops, while 58% are opposed.

 

 

On the issue of who would do a better job of handling the war and protecting the United States from terrorism, Bush leads Kerry 41% to 34%, with 17% saying there’s not much difference between the two.

 

 

Economy

 

When asked to compare their personal financial situation today to a year ago, only 21% say it’s better, 26% say it’s worse, and 53% say their economic situation is about the same.  In December of last year, 31% felt their economic situation compared to a year previous was better.

 

On the issue of who would do a better job of handling the economy, Kerry leads Bush 47% to 32%, with 16% saying there’s not much difference between the two.

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

39%

Disapprove

54%

No Answer

7%

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

15%

78%

7%

Republican

82%

12%

6%

Independent

36%

52%

12%

 

 

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Gender

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

46%

48%

6%

Women

32%

60%

8%

 

 

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Race

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

White

48%

45%

7%

African- American

 

8%

 

86%

 

6%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION: If the November 2004 general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were George Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, an independent?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Kerry

52%

Bush

38%

Nader

2%

Undecided

8%

 

Party – November 2004 Presidential contest?

 

 

Party

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

       76%

13%

2%

9%

Republican

10%

83%

1%

6%

Independent

53%

36%

3%

8%

 

 

Gender – November 2004 Presidential contest?

 

 

Gender

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Men

47%

46%

1%

6%

Women

57%

30%

3%

10%

 

 

Race – November 2004 Presidential contest?

 

 

Race

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

White

43%

47%

2%

8%

African- American

 

84%

 

7%

 

-

 

9%

 

 

QUESTION: Generally, do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

36%

Disapprove

58%

No Answer

6%

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the way Bush is handling Iraq?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

18%

79%

3%

Republican

69%

21%

10%

Independent

34%

57%

9%

 

 

 

QUESTION: Recently, the administration indicated that American military forces will be out of Iraq by the year 2006.  Do think American forces should get out sooner than that, stay longer than that, or does withdrawal in 2 years sound about right to you?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Sooner

48%

Stay longer

14%

About right

27%

No answer

11%

 

Party – Withdrawal by 2006?

 

 

Party

Sooner

Longer

About right

No answer

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

65%

5%

20%

10%

Republican

23%

29%

35%

13%

Independent

37%

17%

38%

8%

QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose an immediate withdrawal of all American military forces from Iraq?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

33%

Oppose

58%

No answer

9%

 

Party – Immediate withdrawal?

 

 

Party

Favor

Oppose

No answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

43%

48%

9%

Republican

17%

73%

10%

Independent

31%

63%

6%

 

 

 

QUESTION: Who do you think would do a better job of handling the war in Iraq, specifically, and protecting the United States from terrorism, generally: George Bush or John Kerry, or do you think there’s not much difference between the two of them?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Bush

41%

Kerry

34%

No difference

17%

No answer

8%

 

Party – Do better job dealing with Iraq and terrorism?

 

 

Party

Bush

Kerry

No difference

No answer

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

19%

51%

22%

8%

Republican

79%

4%

9%

8%

Independent

42%

34%

14%

10%

QUESTION: Compared to a year ago, is the economic situation of you and your family better than it was, worse than it was, or about the same as it was?

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Better

21%

Worse

26%

Same

53%

 

Party – Economy compared to a year ago?

 

 

Party

Better

Worse

Same

 

 

 

 

Democrat

11%

35%

54%

Republican

37%

8%

55%

Independent

25%

33%

42%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION: Who do you think would do a better overall job of helping provide a stable economic situation for you and your family: George Bush or John Kerry, or do you think there’s not much difference between the two of them?

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Bush

32%

Kerry

47%

No difference

16%

No answer

5%

 

Party – Do better job dealing with economy?

 

 

Party

Bush

Kerry

No difference

No answer

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

8%

70%

18%

4%

Republican

77%

6%

12%

5%

Independent

27%

49%

17%

7%