Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Most Important Issue

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

General Election Match-ups

 

March 2008

 

Contact: Laslo Boyd    443-812-4883

 

 

www.gonzalesresearch.com

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from February 23rd through March 1st, 2008.  A total of 807 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, age or race.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         402   (50%)

 

White        602   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  105      (13%)

Female      405   (50%)

Black        185   (23%)

Baltimore City             74        (9%)

 

Other/Ref   20 

Baltimore Suburbs     288      (36%)

 

 

Washington Subs      245      (30%)

 

 

Western Maryland      95      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         451   (56%)

 

 

Republican       256   (32%)

 

 

Independent     100   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

Most Important Issue

 

In the past 2 months there has been a significant shift in what voters perceive as the most important facing Maryland. 

 

Statewide, 23% of voters say that the economy is the most important issue, which is more than double what it was in our last poll at the beginning of the year when 10% cited it.  The next most frequently mentioned issues were taxes (20%), health care (13%), and education (10%).

 

A trend toward voters naming the economy as the most important issue is happening in other states across the country, and this will have important implications in this year’s presidential election.

 

 

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

 

Governor Martin O’Malley’s job rating in the state continues to feel the effects of last fall’s special session.

 

Statewide, 37% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor (down 2 points from January), while 48% disapprove, with 15% offering no opinion.

 

O’Malley Job Approval

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

 

No opinion

 

March 2008

 

37%

 

48%

 

15%

January 2008

39%

49%

12%

October 2007

46%

31%

23%

March 2007

52%

21%

27%

 

Forty-eight percent of Democrats in the state approve of the job he’s doing, while 35% disapprove.  Among Republicans, only 17% approve and 69% disapprove, and with independents, 39% approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor and 51% disapprove.

 

Dissatisfaction of the job the Governor is doing is particularly pronounced with men, among whom 53% disapprove and only 33% approve.

Cameras in Courtrooms

 

Voters are split on allowing cameras in Maryland courtrooms.

 

Statewide, 46% say they’d favor a law permitting cameras in the courts, while 38% say they oppose cameras in courtrooms, and 16% gave no opinion.

 

A majority of men (52%) favor having cameras in court, while a plurality of women (42%) say they oppose it.

 

 

President Bush Job Approval

 

Statewide, only 27% approve of the job George Bush is doing as president, while 64% disapprove of his performance as president.  The President’s rating has remained consistently bad for a long period of time.   

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

 

March 2008

 

27%

 

64%

 

9%

January 2008

28%

64%

8%

January 2007

25%

68%

7%

August 2006

36%

59%

5%

April 2006

29%

67%

4%

October 2005

33%

63%

4%

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%