Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

Maryland Poll - Part 2

U.S. Senate Match-up

Democratic Presidential Primary Contest

October 2003

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from October 20^th through October 26^th, 2003. A total of 831 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

This survey also includes a sample of 317 likely March 2004 Democratic primary voters. The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 414 (50%)	White 629 (76%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 104 (13%)
Female 417 (50%)	Black 187 (23%)	Baltimore City 81 (10%)
	Other/Ref 15	Baltimore Suburbs 287 (35%)
		Washington Suburbs 265 (32%)
		Western Maryland 94 (11%)
Party Registration
Democrat 472 (57%)
Republican 258 (31%)
Independent 101 (12%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Democratic Primary Sample Demographics

Gender	Race
Male 136 (43%)	White 212 (67%)
Female 181 (57%)	Black 99 (31%)
	Other/Ref 6

Summary

United States Senate Contest

Barbara Mikulski, who’s represented Maryland voters for the past 27 years in Congress, the first ten (1976-1986) as a member of the House of Representatives from Baltimore and the last 17 in the U.S. Senate, remains popular with her constituents.

Statewide, 56% have a favorable opinion of Mikulski, 22% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 19% say their view toward her is neutral, and 3% don’t recognize her name.

Mikulski’s likely GOP opponent, Eastern Shore State Senator Edward J. (E.J.) Pipkin, is recognized favorably by 13% of voters, unfavorably by 3%, with 20% having a neutral opinion of the former investment banker, and 64% do not recognize his name.

Pipkin, who announced his candidacy earlier this month, currently represents just 1/47^th of the state in the Maryland senate. The 36% name recognition among state voters Pipkin has a full year before the general election is not a bad position from which to begin his charge. But as with any campaign involving an entrenched incumbent, challenger Pipkin will ultimately need to convince voters that it’s time for a change if he’s to be successful in November 2004.

In an election match-up, Mikulski leads Pipkin 57% to 26%, with 17% undecided. Among Democrats, Mikulski’s up 78%-9%; among Republicans, Pipkin enjoys a reflexive 63%-21% advantage. And among independents, who cast the swing votes in competitive elections, Mikulski has a decisive 54% to 8% advantage. In order to win, Pipkin will need to drive down Mikulski’s party-base vote under 70 percent and flip independents. Not an easy task against an incumbent who’s well known and well liked.

Mikulski leads Pipkin in every region of the state, but on his Eastern Shore base the margin is a razor thin 43%-41%.

We next asked voters the following: “Barbara Mikulski has represented Maryland voters in Congress for the past 27 years. Some say Mikulski represents the status quo, that she hasn’t done enough to create jobs and improve schools, and that it’s time for a change. Others say Marylanders know Mikulski, that she’s been an effective senator who’s fought for jobs and families, and she deserves re-election. Do you think Mikulski’s been around too long and it’s time for a change, or do you think Mikulski’s been an effective senator who deserves re-election?” This is the type of question campaigns often times will employ to test their prospective positions.

Statewide, 53% express the opinion that Mikulski’s been effective and deserves re-election, 31% declare that she’s been around too long and it’s time for a change, and 16%

aren’t sure. Even with this framing of the contest, we found that Mikulski’s support among Democrats remains a solid 74%; she continues to capture nearly 1-in-5 Republicans; and her lead among independents is over 30 points…a glimpse of the tough assignment that lies ahead for Pipkin.

Democratic Presidential Politics

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean continues to lead the field in Maryland among likely March 2004 Democratic primary voters.

Statewide, 23% support Dean, 20% favor former V.P. nominee Joe Lieberman, 11% back recently entered Wesley Clark, 9% say they’re for Congressman Richard Gephardt, 7% support John Edwards and John Kerry, 6% are for Reverend Al Sharpton, 2% back former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley Braun, and 1% pick vocal anti-war Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

Democratic Primary in Maryland

Voter Discontent

In order to gauge whether voter antagonism toward the political establishment as evidenced in the recent California recall has spilled over into the Free State, we asked the following question: “Some observers have concluded that voter anger and discontent with Governor Gray Davis was a major factor in the recent recall vote in California.  How likely is it that your vote in next year's presidential election will be determined by anger at President Bush: very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?” Statewide, 30% say it’s “very likely,” 22% say it’s somewhat likely, 10% say “somewhat unlikely,” and 33% say “very unlikely.”

We discovered that among Democrats, 80% (49% “very likely”/31% “somewhat likely”) say that their vote next year will at least to some extent be determined by anger toward Bush, and among black voters, 87% declaim likewise.

But given that Maryland tilts heavily Democratic in federal elections - Bush lost here by 17 points three years ago (57%-40%) – and given that Gray Davis’s disapproval rating was 75% when he was booted from office earlier this month, the overall results here (52% likely to cast a vote in anger/only 30% “very” likely) don’t seem to suggest that Maryland voters have yet arrived near the limit that their Golden State counterparts were pushed. The polling numbers hint, however, that the potential may be in place for this anger to breed and grow depending on what happens between now and next year.

Name Recognition

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Barbara Mikulski	56%	22%	19%	3%
Edward J. (E.J.) Pipkin	13%	3%	20%	64%

QUESTION: If the November 2004 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Edward J. (E.J.) Pipkin, the Republican, and Barbara Mikulski, the Democrat?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Mikulski	57%
Pipkin	26%
Undecided	17%

Party – 2004 United States Senate Match-up?

Party	Mikulski	Pipkin	Undecided
Democrat	78%	9%	13%
Republican	21%	63%	16%
Independent	54%	8%	38%

Gender – 2004 United States Senate Match-up?

Gender	Mikulski	Pipkin	Undecided
Men	46%	33%	21%
Women	68%	19%	13%

Race – 2004 United States Senate Match-up?

Race	Mikulski	Pipkin	Undecided
White	49%	33%	18%
African- American	82%	3%	15%

Region – 2004 United States Senate Match-up?

Region	Mikulski	Pipkin	Undecided
Eastern Shore/Southern MD	43%	41%	16%
Baltimore City	83%	7%	10%
Baltimore Suburbs	55%	30%	15%
Washington Suburbs	58%	22%	20%
Western MD	48%	28%	24%

QUESTION: Barbara Mikulski has represented Maryland voters in Congress for the past 27 years. Some say Mikulski represents the status quo, that she hasn’t done enough to create jobs and improve schools, and that it’s time for a change. Others say Marylanders know Mikulski, that she’s been an effective senator who’s fought for jobs and families, and she deserves re-election. Do you think Mikulski’s been around too long and it’s time for a change, or do you think Mikulski’s been an effective senator who deserves re-election?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Time for Change	31%
Deserves Re-election	53%
Undecided	16%

Party – Time for change or deserves re-election?

Party	Time for Change	Deserves Re-election	Undecided
Democrat	16%	74%	10%
Republican	65%	19%	16%
Independent	12%	46%	42%

Gender – Time for change or deserves re-election?

Gender	Time for Change	Deserves Re-election	Undecided
Men	39%	41%	20%
Women	23%	65%	12%

QUESTION: Some observers have concluded that voter anger and discontent with Governor Gray Davis was a major factor in the recent recall vote in California.  How likely is it that your vote in next year's presidential election will be determined by anger at President Bush: very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Very Likely	30%
Somewhat Likely	22%
Somewhat Unlikely	10%
Very Unlikely	33%
No answer	5%

Party – How likely is it that your vote in next year's presidential election will be determined by anger at President Bush?

Party	Very Likely	Somewhat Likely	Somewhat Unlikely	Very Unlikely	No answer
Democrat	49%	31%	6%	11%	3%
Republican	1%	3%	18%	77%	1%
Independent	19%	28%	9%	18%	26%

Race – How likely is it that your vote in next year's presidential election will be determined by anger at President Bush?

Race	Very Likely	Somewhat Likely	Somewhat Unlikely	Very Unlikely	No answer
White	24%	17%	12%	42%	5%
African- American	50%	37%	2%	4%	7%

How Likely Your Vote Next Year

Will be

Anger Directed at President Bush

********** 317 Likely March 2004 Democratic Primary Voters **********

Name Recognition

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Joe Lieberman	52%	8%	29%	11%
Howard Dean	39%	9%	32%	20%
Richard Gephardt	30%	15%	31%	24%
Wesley Clark	27%	13%	37%	23%
Carol Mosely Braun	26%	9%	27%	38%
John Kerry	24%	16%	34%	26%
Al Sharpton	24%	38%	13%	25%
John Edwards	22%	2%	41%	35%
Dennis Kucinich	10%	7%	22%	61%

QUESTION: If the March 2004 Democratic primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were:

Howard Dean 23%

Joe Lieberman 20%

Wesley Clark 11%

Richard Gephardt 9%

John Kerry 7%

John Edwards 7%

Al Sharpton 6%

Carol Moseley Braun 2%

Dennis Kucinich 1%

Undecided 14%